It’s all about the math, dummy!

No one understands the electoral maths of the NZ electoral system including the electoral commission apparently. Last night I put the latest figures from the “Poll of Polls” into the electoral commission calculator and I discovered the calculator was broken! I put the figures in with United Future winning one electorate seat, but when it crunched the numbers it gave me a parliament without United Future in it. Hmmm… have I uncovered a conspiracy to keep Peter Dunne out of parliament, or is it just evidence that someone got their math wrong. Let’s hope it’s the latter and that they’ll get it right on the night.

Electoral Commission calculator results captured 17 September 2014

Electoral Commission calculator results captured 17 September 2014

In the meantime, let’s consider two concepts this election hangs on – the so called “Wasted vote” and the “Overhang.” The Wasted Vote is the proportion of votes that go to parties that do not make it into parliament by either crossing the 5% Party vote threshold OR by winning at least one electoral seat. The overhang is when a party or parties win more electoral seats than the proportion of their Party vote entitles them too. This means that the size of parliament would increase. Normally 120 and 1/120th of the party vote (0.83%) is equivalent to one member of a party. However, for example, if a party receives just 1% of the vote, but wins 2 electorate seats then this will increase the size of parliament to 121. The various permutations of polls have the current election resulting in a parliament ranging from 120 to 124 seats.

The number of seats in parliament is crucial because it means the effective number of seats a party of block of parties must win in order to form the majority to govern increases. 61 seats are needed for a 120 or 121 member parliament, 62 for a 122 or 123, and 63 for a 124 member parliament.

About the Wasted vote two ideas are important:

The Wasted vote supports the party already with the most votes the most

The Wasted vote could determine who governs!

Let’s assume that 61 seats are necessary in a 120 seat parliament. Ie a block needs 61/120th of the party vote (50.83%) to govern. Crucially this percentage, though, is NOT the percentage of the vote that block gain on the night (which is what the polls try and predict). What it is, is the “effective percentage” after the Wasted votes are taken into account. A scenario could help. Consider an election with two parties crossing the 5% threshold to get into parliament and all the rest being wasted votes. Let’s call the two parties the Big, Rich and Totally Selfish (BRATS*) party and the Really After Total State (RATS**) party. Consider this, there are 1 million voters. BRATS gets 450,000 votes on the night (45%). But, 10% (100,000) of the vote is Wasted. That means the proportion of votes the BRATS get out of the non-wasted votes is 450,000/900,000 giving an “effective percentage” of 50% which would give them 60 seats in parliament.  The RATS would have the same in this scenario. We can turn this question around the other way and ask how high a proportion of the total vote does the Wasted vote have to be for the BRATS “effective percentage” to cross the 50.83% threshold needed to govern? This will depend on the total proportion of votes the BRATS receive  (in our example 45%). The graph below illustrates this.

The percentage of wasted votes the BRATS need in order to govern based on the actual percentage of votes they receive

The percentage of wasted votes the BRATS need in order to govern based on the actual percentage of votes they receive

So, folks, if on the night your vote is in the waste basket, rest assured it will have an effect on the outcome of this election.  The only truly wasted vote is the one that is not cast!

_______________________________________

*Led by Mr I.M. Wright

** Led by Mr M.Y. Tern

World Science Week: Where are we in the world?

It’s World Science Week.  So, where are we in the science world?  One measure showing our commitment to science is our expenditure on R&D.  If we compare ourselves to the other OECD countries, we see that we are right at the bottom of the pile at 1.27% of GDP and have recently been overtaken by Hungary.

OECD countries Research and Development expenditure as a function of Gross Domestic Product

OECD countries Research and Development expenditure as a function of Gross Domestic Product

You can explore this graph for yourself by clicking the link here.

In four weeks we will vote for a new government.  I blogged a link to party policies about health research last week. Labour have just released their policy and National are yet to. In the meantime, the Green party says we need another $1bn invested in R& D, which would add about 0.5% (based on a ~$200bn GDP) and United Future and Labour wish us to have at least the OECD average which means another $2bn or so investment.  In the meantime, UF, Greens, and Labour all want to re-establish tax credits for R&D which is intended to stimulate private investment in R&D.  If anyone knows the answer, I’d be interested to hear how many of the other OECD countries have R&D tax credits and what difference that has made to investment in R&D.

 

 

Policy our lives depend on: Health research in election 2014

We all care about health – ours, our family’s, and even that of one or two politicians (perhaps). We also care that the 15 billion dollar annual health budget is spent on health care that works.  I contend that both these cares are only as good as the health research that underpins the treatments we receive.  Therefore, I have compiled what I could discover about health research policy from the policy documents available online of the political parties contending the current NZ general election. I have tried to focus on where health research in a particular area is promised or on health research infrastructure. In some places I’ve extracted from a more general science and/or innovation policy those policies I think likely to impact health research.  Obviously some parties are still releasing policy.  I invite them to send me any policies that they think relevant and I will update.  I think you will be surprised at what is missing in the list below.

The parties are in reverse alphabetical order.

United Future*

Health Policy: http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/policy/health

  • Increase funding for health research to bring New Zealand’s funding up to at least the OECD average as a proportion of GDP;
  • Establish a national register for Type 1 Diabetes, a diabetes research fund, and increase funding for Type 2 Diabetes testing;
  • Make no change to the legal status of cannabis for medicinal use until a robust regulatory testing regime is developed that proves cannabis use causes minimal harm to an individual’s health
  • Introduce a sabbatical scheme that would allow health professionals to take a year out of work every five years to update their skills and knowledge;
  • Promote more research to address youth related health problems such as suicide, alcoholism, and bulimia.

Science Policy: http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/policy/research-science-and-technology

Too long to put in detail, but policies such as “simplifying different funding mechanisms” and specifying biotech as one of half a dozen key research areas requiring focus are likely to impact on health research.

Health spokesperson (Associate Minister of Health): Peter Dunne MP peter.dunne@parliament.govt.nz

 

New Zealand First

Health Policy: http://nzfirst.org.nz/policy/health

  • Ensure an on-going commitment to the funding of health research, research institutes, and for training.

Science Policy: None

RS&T Portfolio holder: Tracey Martin MP tracey.martin@parliament.govt.nz

Health Portfolio holder: Barbara Steward MP   barbara.stewart@parliament.govt.nz

 

National

Health Policy: https://www.national.org.nz/news/features/health

No specific policy on any health research

Science Policy: None

Health spokesperson (Minister of Health): Tony Ryall tony.ryall@national.org.nz

Science spokesperson (Minister of Science and Innovation): Steven Joyce steven.joyce@national.org.nz

 

Maori Party

Policy: http://maoriparty.org/our-policies-kawanatanga/

  • We will support: … Roadshows to promote educational pathways in areas where Māori are under-represented – ie health science academies (Te Kura Pūtaiao Hauora) or science camps.

Science Policy: No specific policy but some comments in the policy above about research and development include establishing an investment fund for Māori Research and Development which may impact on health research.

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: Teururoa Flavell MP teururoa.flavell@parliament.govt.nz

 

Mana

Health Policy: http://mana.net.nz/policy/policy-health/

No policy specifically dealing with health research

Science Policy: None

Contact: Hone Harawira MP hone.harawira@parliament.govt.nz

 

Labour

Health Policy: http://campaign.labour.org.nz/full_health_policy

  • We need a health system that is based on evidence about what works – not fixated on manufactured targets or political slogans

Health spokesperson: Annette King annette.king@parliament.govt.nz

Science Policyhttps://www.labour.org.nz/sites/default/files/issues/science_and_innovation_policy.pdf (UPDATE – released 25 August)

  • Reinstate post-doctoral fellowships for recent PhD graduates (scaling up to %6m per year)
  • Prioritise an increase in our public science spend to link New Zealand to the OECD average over time
  • review and reform the National Science Challenges, on the basis of advice from the science community and building on the success of respected funding bodies such as the Marsden Fund

    provide integrated support for innovation across the Crown Research Institutes and tertiary institutions, and through private-sector research activities, and sectoral and regional initiatives

    review the criteria of the Performance Based Research Fund to ensure that a broad range of research success is recognised

    support research in universities, including through a continued commitment to Centres of Research Excellence

    encourage closer association between business and university commercialisation centres to ensure ‘discoveries’ within the universities are most effectively brought to market and have the best chance for success

    support and foster a collaborative university system, where each of our universities is enabled to focus on its areas of research and teaching strength.

  • support research in universities, including through:
    • a continued commitment to Centres of Research Excellence,
    • ensuring the sustainability of the Marsden Fund and other research funds
    • supporting the career pathways of graduates, to encourage our researchers to develop their careers and contribute to New Zealand.

Science Spokesperson: Moana Mackey MP moana.mackey@parliament.govt.nz

 

Internet

Health Policy: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1g4RY7Sh-vYZN1WAIx_A-AEZlYzNjMhzY81KnfKLMGp0/edit

Copyright and Open Research Policy: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Le3rY0wlh9tJaBzpxK5xrpeWID-j5FmeE4dqONdQATE/edit

  • Mandate that all taxpayer-funded research be open access with the public able to freely access and re-use it.

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: hello@internet.org.nz

 

Green

Health Policy: No general health policy, but some on particular issues.

Update 25 Aug:  I have been informed that the Greens have a health policy on a different web site https://home.greens.org.nz/policy/health-policy.  Their election site http://www.greens.org has no health policy.

No policy specifically dealing with health research.

Green innovation Policy: https://www.greens.org.nz/policy/smarter-economy/smart-green-innovation

Some aspects of this policy may impact health research, in particular:

  • $1 billion of new government funding over three years for research and development to kick-start a transformational shift in how our economy creates wealth;
  • The Green Party will fund an additional 1,000 places at tertiary institutions for students of engineering, mathematics, computer science, and the physical sciences.

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact greenparty@greens.org.nz

 

Conservatives

Health Policy: None

Science Policy: None

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: Office@conservativeparty.org.nz

 

ACT

Health Policy: http://www.act.org.nz/policies/health-0

No policy specifically dealing with health research

Science Policy: No science policy

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: info@act.org.nz

________________________________________________________________________________________________

*Disclaimer: I used to be a member of United Future and made submissions on the health and science policies in 2008. A few echoes of those submissions remain in the policies.

Cheesecake files: A stadium full

As we’ve been enjoying the World Cup and the Commonwealth Games my latest cheesecake appeared in print online. The topic once more is Kidney Attack biomarkers – those pesky little proteins in the urine that appear when your kidney is injured.  This time I have been getting stuck into some math (sorry) to try and understand what it is that affects when these biomarkers appear in the urine after injury.  I call this a biomarker time-course.  A “Pee Profile” may be a better term but it would never get past the editor.  What I care about is whether the type of biomarker and/or extent of injury, affects the pee profiles.

There are three basic types of biomarkers.  First are those that are filtered from the blood by the two million odd filters in the kidney.  Often they are then reabsorbed back into the blood in the little tubules where the pee is produced – that is, they don’t appear in the urine.  Think of it like a stadium with many entrances.  People (biomarkers) come in and sit down (are reabsorbed).  If, though, a section of the stadium has been fenced off because of broken seating from the previous game (the injury), then some of those entering the stadium may end up exiting it again (the pee biomarkers).  The numbers being reabsorbed and exiting will also depend on whether all the entrances are open – if some are closed then this will have a flow on affect on the rate of people leaving the stadium.

The second are preformed biomarkers.  If we change the analogy slightly, imagine these as people already in the stadium (if the analogy was accurate they would have been born there!).  If some terrible injury happens (like the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th goals of a now famous football match) some of those people would get up and exit quickly.  The overall rate of exit would reflect on the extent of the injury.

The third, are induced biomarkers.  These are ones that don’t already exist, but are produced in response to an “injury.”  Instead of being biomarkers, let us think of the spectators as produces of these biomarkers and let noise be the biomarker.  There is some background noise of course, but when an “injury” (goal, gold medal performance etc) occurs there is a sudden increase in noise which slowly dies down.  Depending on the team and the number of supporters this will be softer or loader and will carry on for shorter or longer periods (Goooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaa……lllllllllllll).

The upshot of it all were many coloured graphs and a step towards understanding how we may better make use of the various types of novel biomarkers of kidney injury that have been recently discovered.

PlosOneFigs

_____________

Pickering, J. W., & Endre, Z. H. (2014). Acute kidney injury urinary biomarker time-courses. PloS One. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0101288

 

 

How to improve your citation record

Peter Griffin over on Griffin’s Gadgets published a fun post on New Zealand’s seven most influential scientists based on data collected by Thomson Reuters and available at http://highlycited.com. Apparently they are all in the top 1% of cited scientists.  The ODT was obviously impressed by all this number waving and boasted of one of Dunedin’s own being part of the elite.  I was devestated not to be on that list, so I got thinking how I could move up the rankings.  Using Google scholar instead of Thomson Reuters is better for the ego of course because they allow a broader range of journals to be counted as citing or citable.  Unfortunately, if everyone did this I’d not be ranked any better.  Alternatively, I could send tweets out to everyone whom I cited hoping they’d be good enough to cite me back.  If I was really smart, I’d choose to cite most frequently those who publish most often.  Then I came across an easy answer in this graph – I must publish in Multidisciplinary journals!  I better get on with it, only 1650 potential citing days till PBRF 2018 …

Number of cites per document v H index for New Zealand documents published 2011-12. Source: SCImago. (2007). SJR — SCImago Journal & Country Rank. Retrieved June 25, 2014, from http://www.scimagojr.com

Number of cites per document v H index for New Zealand documents published 2011-12.
Source: SCImago. (2007). SJR — SCImago Journal & Country Rank.
Retrieved June 25, 2014, from http://www.scimagojr.com

 

Happy birthday “New Zealand Science Today”

It’s one year, 2184 articles, 460 subscribers, and 11,721 “flips” since the online Flipboard magazine which collates articles about what NZ scientists are doing and saying was first published.  Thanks to all the contributors, and especially to all those out in NZ Science-ville who are making a difference and letting the world know about it.  New Zealand Science Today can be found on Flipboard or on the internet here.NZ Science Today

 

 

100 days to do something about diabetes

So the NZ election is about 100 days away.  I want action from the political parties on an issue that in the next decade could affect a million of us, shortening lives, and cost us tens of billions of dollars.  The issue is simply diabetes.  Already 7% of adults have diabetes and another 18.6% is on the way to getting it (“pre-diabetic”). For our medical system  – and all tax payers – this means billions.  For individuals it means shortened lives, amputations, dialysis, blindness etc etc etc.  For employers it means workers taking sick days. For communities and families it means missing grandparents. Surely this is the biggest health issue and one of the biggest economic issues facing the country.  Where is the media about it?  Where are the questions to the politicians? I’ve blogged before about the lack of specific and evidence based policy amongst the political parties.  Where are their new policies?

Here’s a promise – I will publish on this blog any policy of any registered NZ political party specifically aimed to slow the diabetes epidemic. Along side that policy I’ll publish any evidence that is supplied as to why the party thinks that policy will work.

Free advertising – surely all the parties will take this up?