Obama 91% Romney 9%

I published yesterday about my modeling showing Ricky Ponting’s last innings helps predicts the chance of Australia winning.  Today I came across the New York Times “538” blog which uses a prediction model to predict Obama currently has a 91% chance of winning the Presidential Elections.  The reason it is so different from the polls which just report the percentage of people who say they will vote for one or other candidate is because in the US electoral system is all about winning the electoral college votes State by State. The “Chance of winning” model is put together by a bloke (Nate Silver) who rose to fame with his models to predict athlete’s performance.  His predictions use polling data, plus a regression analysis, projections and multiple simulations (see here).  Fascinating.

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