Tag Archives: Election

It’s all about the math, dummy!

No one understands the electoral maths of the NZ electoral system including the electoral commission apparently. Last night I put the latest figures from the “Poll of Polls” into the electoral commission calculator and I discovered the calculator was broken! I put the figures in with United Future winning one electorate seat, but when it crunched the numbers it gave me a parliament without United Future in it. Hmmm… have I uncovered a conspiracy to keep Peter Dunne out of parliament, or is it just evidence that someone got their math wrong. Let’s hope it’s the latter and that they’ll get it right on the night.

Electoral Commission calculator results captured 17 September 2014

Electoral Commission calculator results captured 17 September 2014

In the meantime, let’s consider two concepts this election hangs on – the so called “Wasted vote” and the “Overhang.” The Wasted Vote is the proportion of votes that go to parties that do not make it into parliament by either crossing the 5% Party vote threshold OR by winning at least one electoral seat. The overhang is when a party or parties win more electoral seats than the proportion of their Party vote entitles them too. This means that the size of parliament would increase. Normally 120 and 1/120th of the party vote (0.83%) is equivalent to one member of a party. However, for example, if a party receives just 1% of the vote, but wins 2 electorate seats then this will increase the size of parliament to 121. The various permutations of polls have the current election resulting in a parliament ranging from 120 to 124 seats.

The number of seats in parliament is crucial because it means the effective number of seats a party of block of parties must win in order to form the majority to govern increases. 61 seats are needed for a 120 or 121 member parliament, 62 for a 122 or 123, and 63 for a 124 member parliament.

About the Wasted vote two ideas are important:

The Wasted vote supports the party already with the most votes the most

The Wasted vote could determine who governs!

Let’s assume that 61 seats are necessary in a 120 seat parliament. Ie a block needs 61/120th of the party vote (50.83%) to govern. Crucially this percentage, though, is NOT the percentage of the vote that block gain on the night (which is what the polls try and predict). What it is, is the “effective percentage” after the Wasted votes are taken into account. A scenario could help. Consider an election with two parties crossing the 5% threshold to get into parliament and all the rest being wasted votes. Let’s call the two parties the Big, Rich and Totally Selfish (BRATS*) party and the Really After Total State (RATS**) party. Consider this, there are 1 million voters. BRATS gets 450,000 votes on the night (45%). But, 10% (100,000) of the vote is Wasted. That means the proportion of votes the BRATS get out of the non-wasted votes is 450,000/900,000 giving an “effective percentage” of 50% which would give them 60 seats in parliament.  The RATS would have the same in this scenario. We can turn this question around the other way and ask how high a proportion of the total vote does the Wasted vote have to be for the BRATS “effective percentage” to cross the 50.83% threshold needed to govern? This will depend on the total proportion of votes the BRATS receive  (in our example 45%). The graph below illustrates this.

The percentage of wasted votes the BRATS need in order to govern based on the actual percentage of votes they receive

The percentage of wasted votes the BRATS need in order to govern based on the actual percentage of votes they receive

So, folks, if on the night your vote is in the waste basket, rest assured it will have an effect on the outcome of this election.  The only truly wasted vote is the one that is not cast!

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*Led by Mr I.M. Wright

** Led by Mr M.Y. Tern

Policy our lives depend on: Health research in election 2014

We all care about health – ours, our family’s, and even that of one or two politicians (perhaps). We also care that the 15 billion dollar annual health budget is spent on health care that works.  I contend that both these cares are only as good as the health research that underpins the treatments we receive.  Therefore, I have compiled what I could discover about health research policy from the policy documents available online of the political parties contending the current NZ general election. I have tried to focus on where health research in a particular area is promised or on health research infrastructure. In some places I’ve extracted from a more general science and/or innovation policy those policies I think likely to impact health research.  Obviously some parties are still releasing policy.  I invite them to send me any policies that they think relevant and I will update.  I think you will be surprised at what is missing in the list below.

The parties are in reverse alphabetical order.

United Future*

Health Policy: http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/policy/health

  • Increase funding for health research to bring New Zealand’s funding up to at least the OECD average as a proportion of GDP;
  • Establish a national register for Type 1 Diabetes, a diabetes research fund, and increase funding for Type 2 Diabetes testing;
  • Make no change to the legal status of cannabis for medicinal use until a robust regulatory testing regime is developed that proves cannabis use causes minimal harm to an individual’s health
  • Introduce a sabbatical scheme that would allow health professionals to take a year out of work every five years to update their skills and knowledge;
  • Promote more research to address youth related health problems such as suicide, alcoholism, and bulimia.

Science Policy: http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/policy/research-science-and-technology

Too long to put in detail, but policies such as “simplifying different funding mechanisms” and specifying biotech as one of half a dozen key research areas requiring focus are likely to impact on health research.

Health spokesperson (Associate Minister of Health): Peter Dunne MP peter.dunne@parliament.govt.nz

 

New Zealand First

Health Policy: http://nzfirst.org.nz/policy/health

  • Ensure an on-going commitment to the funding of health research, research institutes, and for training.

Science Policy: None

RS&T Portfolio holder: Tracey Martin MP tracey.martin@parliament.govt.nz

Health Portfolio holder: Barbara Steward MP   barbara.stewart@parliament.govt.nz

 

National

Health Policy: https://www.national.org.nz/news/features/health

No specific policy on any health research

Science Policy: None

Health spokesperson (Minister of Health): Tony Ryall tony.ryall@national.org.nz

Science spokesperson (Minister of Science and Innovation): Steven Joyce steven.joyce@national.org.nz

 

Maori Party

Policy: http://maoriparty.org/our-policies-kawanatanga/

  • We will support: … Roadshows to promote educational pathways in areas where Māori are under-represented – ie health science academies (Te Kura Pūtaiao Hauora) or science camps.

Science Policy: No specific policy but some comments in the policy above about research and development include establishing an investment fund for Māori Research and Development which may impact on health research.

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: Teururoa Flavell MP teururoa.flavell@parliament.govt.nz

 

Mana

Health Policy: http://mana.net.nz/policy/policy-health/

No policy specifically dealing with health research

Science Policy: None

Contact: Hone Harawira MP hone.harawira@parliament.govt.nz

 

Labour

Health Policy: http://campaign.labour.org.nz/full_health_policy

  • We need a health system that is based on evidence about what works – not fixated on manufactured targets or political slogans

Health spokesperson: Annette King annette.king@parliament.govt.nz

Science Policyhttps://www.labour.org.nz/sites/default/files/issues/science_and_innovation_policy.pdf (UPDATE – released 25 August)

  • Reinstate post-doctoral fellowships for recent PhD graduates (scaling up to %6m per year)
  • Prioritise an increase in our public science spend to link New Zealand to the OECD average over time
  • review and reform the National Science Challenges, on the basis of advice from the science community and building on the success of respected funding bodies such as the Marsden Fund

    provide integrated support for innovation across the Crown Research Institutes and tertiary institutions, and through private-sector research activities, and sectoral and regional initiatives

    review the criteria of the Performance Based Research Fund to ensure that a broad range of research success is recognised

    support research in universities, including through a continued commitment to Centres of Research Excellence

    encourage closer association between business and university commercialisation centres to ensure ‘discoveries’ within the universities are most effectively brought to market and have the best chance for success

    support and foster a collaborative university system, where each of our universities is enabled to focus on its areas of research and teaching strength.

  • support research in universities, including through:
    • a continued commitment to Centres of Research Excellence,
    • ensuring the sustainability of the Marsden Fund and other research funds
    • supporting the career pathways of graduates, to encourage our researchers to develop their careers and contribute to New Zealand.

Science Spokesperson: Moana Mackey MP moana.mackey@parliament.govt.nz

 

Internet

Health Policy: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1g4RY7Sh-vYZN1WAIx_A-AEZlYzNjMhzY81KnfKLMGp0/edit

Copyright and Open Research Policy: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Le3rY0wlh9tJaBzpxK5xrpeWID-j5FmeE4dqONdQATE/edit

  • Mandate that all taxpayer-funded research be open access with the public able to freely access and re-use it.

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: hello@internet.org.nz

 

Green

Health Policy: No general health policy, but some on particular issues.

Update 25 Aug:  I have been informed that the Greens have a health policy on a different web site https://home.greens.org.nz/policy/health-policy.  Their election site http://www.greens.org has no health policy.

No policy specifically dealing with health research.

Green innovation Policy: https://www.greens.org.nz/policy/smarter-economy/smart-green-innovation

Some aspects of this policy may impact health research, in particular:

  • $1 billion of new government funding over three years for research and development to kick-start a transformational shift in how our economy creates wealth;
  • The Green Party will fund an additional 1,000 places at tertiary institutions for students of engineering, mathematics, computer science, and the physical sciences.

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact greenparty@greens.org.nz

 

Conservatives

Health Policy: None

Science Policy: None

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: Office@conservativeparty.org.nz

 

ACT

Health Policy: http://www.act.org.nz/policies/health-0

No policy specifically dealing with health research

Science Policy: No science policy

Health or Science spokespeople: Unknown

Contact: info@act.org.nz

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*Disclaimer: I used to be a member of United Future and made submissions on the health and science policies in 2008. A few echoes of those submissions remain in the policies.

100 days to do something about diabetes

So the NZ election is about 100 days away.  I want action from the political parties on an issue that in the next decade could affect a million of us, shortening lives, and cost us tens of billions of dollars.  The issue is simply diabetes.  Already 7% of adults have diabetes and another 18.6% is on the way to getting it (“pre-diabetic”). For our medical system  – and all tax payers – this means billions.  For individuals it means shortened lives, amputations, dialysis, blindness etc etc etc.  For employers it means workers taking sick days. For communities and families it means missing grandparents. Surely this is the biggest health issue and one of the biggest economic issues facing the country.  Where is the media about it?  Where are the questions to the politicians? I’ve blogged before about the lack of specific and evidence based policy amongst the political parties.  Where are their new policies?

Here’s a promise – I will publish on this blog any policy of any registered NZ political party specifically aimed to slow the diabetes epidemic. Along side that policy I’ll publish any evidence that is supplied as to why the party thinks that policy will work.

Free advertising – surely all the parties will take this up?

Obama 91% Romney 9%

I published yesterday about my modeling showing Ricky Ponting’s last innings helps predicts the chance of Australia winning.  Today I came across the New York Times “538” blog which uses a prediction model to predict Obama currently has a 91% chance of winning the Presidential Elections.  The reason it is so different from the polls which just report the percentage of people who say they will vote for one or other candidate is because in the US electoral system is all about winning the electoral college votes State by State. The “Chance of winning” model is put together by a bloke (Nate Silver) who rose to fame with his models to predict athlete’s performance.  His predictions use polling data, plus a regression analysis, projections and multiple simulations (see here).  Fascinating.